Research
Working Papers
Abstract · Version: October 2026
Do firms adjust workplace amenities in response to demand shocks? We develop a monopsony framework in which firms jointly determine wages and amenities, and show that the pass-throughs of demand shocks depend crucially on the structure of amenity provision costs. Using Norwegian administrative data that combine matched employer-employee records, firms' cost accounts, and non-pecuniary attributes from job postings, we provide evidence on how firms adjust amenities in response to demand shocks. Exploiting three alternative sources of variation-abrupt value-added changes, public procurement contract wins, and export demand shifts-we document multi-margin adjustments in non-wage compensation, besides wage and employment. We discuss the implications of our findings for the measurement of employer market power.
Abstract · Version: June 2026
We examine commonly used estimators for continuous treatments that vary over time. The classical static panel regression that relates outcomes to current treatment intensity does not accurately capture lagged effects. The most commonly used dynamic difference-in-differences regression instead uses a time-constant measure of treatment to estimate period-specific coefficients, capturing dynamic effects more accurately. We show, however, when higher-exposed units accumulate their treatment earlier than less-exposed units -- a pattern we document for immigration and labor demand shocks -- the estimated coefficients become harder to interpret causally. A panel regression including leads and lags of the time-varying treatment provides an alternative that is robust to these concerns, although it requires sufficient time-series variation in the treatment. We characterize when each estimator fails to recover the treatment effects, propose diagnostic tests, and discuss additional complications arising from heterogeneous treatment effects.
WP: RFBerlin
Abstract · Version: June 2026
This paper investigates how institutional wage-setting constraints, such as a national minimum wage or collectively bargained wages, affect firm responses to demand shocks. We develop a framework to interpret heterogeneous shock responses that depend on the constraints firms face, and provide empirical evidence on the relevance of these constraints in shaping firm behavior across three countries with different institutional settings: Portugal, Norway, and Colombia. We discuss the implications of our findings for conventional measures of employer wage-setting power and rent-sharing.
WP: RFBerlin
Coverage: uc3nomics blog · PSE Migration policy briefs
Abstract · Version: August 2026
The labor market effects of immigration depend on how firms adjust, yet this aspect remains under-explored in developing countries. This paper studies the short-run labor market effects of the mass influx of Venezuelan migrants into Colombia using employer-employee data. As immigrants enter informal employment, formal employment for minimum-wage natives declines, reflecting their substitutability with lower-cost informal workers. The negative effects are stronger in small firms, which rely more on informality. A machine learning analysis indicates that firm-level factors explain more of the heterogeneity in worker-level impacts. These findings highlight that informality amplifies firms' role in shaping immigration impacts on workers.
WP: RFBerlin
Abstract · Version: October 2025
Labor market competition differs drastically for production workers and managers. We extend a general equilibrium oligopsony model with minimum wages to include firm organization: firms trade off hiring managers to expand their number of production workers against higher costs. Using matched employer-employee and balance sheet data of Portuguese firms, we quantify the model and validate it against quasi-experimental evidence on oligopsony and minimum wage effects. Relative to the efficient economy, monopsony power reduces employment, wages, and employment concentration, particularly for managers. Hence, welfare losses are 3.4 and 2.4 percent for managers and production workers, respectively. Managers bear greater losses because they sort into larger firms, view firms' non-wage attributes as less substitutable, and are less likely to be bound by the minimum wage. Moreover, monopsony over managers alone reduces production workers' earnings by one-fifth through production complementarities.
Revisions
Abstract · Version: October 2026
This paper examines the labor market integration of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia during a large-scale regularization program. Using labor force survey data on Venezuelan-born migrants and longitudinal data for the universe of regularized migrants, I find that migrants are much more likely than comparable natives to work informally, and only a small share of regularized migrants end up in formal jobs. Those who enter the formal sector earn substantially less than natives, and up to half of this wage gap is due to their sorting into lower-paying firms. Comparing job movers, I show that as migrants transition to better-paying firms, they do not capture their pay premiums fully. There are some improvements as regularized migrants gain formal sector experience, but most of the gap remains after five years. I discuss why formalization rates are not higher despite migrants' similar language, culture, education, and near-universal access to work permits.
Publications
Coverage: Blog BanRep · Portafolio · Valora Analitik · El Colombiano · CAMBIO · Infobae
Abstract ·
The expansion of modern retail in developing countries has reshaped an industry historically dominated by traditional, informal retailers. Its consequences for labor markets, however, remain poorly understood. We study the staggered entry of hard discount stores into small Colombian municipalities between 2010 and 2019. Combining social security records with household survey and tax data, we find that following the entry of a discount chain, the formal employment-to-population ratio increases by approximately 10 percent over time. Formality rises in retail, manufacturing, and construction, along with tax revenues in those sectors. We also find no significant effects on informal employment. Our results suggest that modern retail expansion in highly informal contexts can foster labor formalization.
Abstract
This paper studies the labor market impacts of the Venezuelan immigration in Colombia. Exploiting spatial variation in exposure, I find a negative effect on native wages driven by the informal sector (where immigrants are concentrated) and a reduction in native employment in the formal sector (where the minimum wage binds for many workers). To explain this, I build a model in which a firm substitutes formal for informal labor in response to lower informal wages. Consistent with the model's predictions, I document that the decrease in formal employment is driven by small firms that use both labor types in production and by workers earning the minimum wage.
Policy Reports
- OECD: International Migration Outlook, Ch. 4 (2025).
- World Bank: Soaring Food Prices Threaten Recent Economic Gains in the EU (2025), A Path to Inclusive Growth in the EU amid Inflation and Fiscal Constraints (2024), Energizing Europe–Inclusive Growth (2023), Energizing Europe–Rising to the Challenge (2023).